Little donkeys like this little treasure, grow up to be big donkeys. A good definition for a "donkey" would be "it's a racehorse that hasn't won a race in the last 52 weeks, provided the said racehorse hasn't had a bad injury which necessitated a long spell". Justracing has obtained this covert photo of Emblem of Liberty, soon after he was born. Now separated from his mother, the little darling hasn't won a race for 43 months, so he'll need a traffic cop to show him to the winners stall in the highly unlikely event he ever wins another race - even at Dingo.
As Matt Nicholls is in hospital for minor surgery – I think he mumbled something about needing some sort of “reduction” surgery, I’m writing the Melbourne racing article for him for this week only.
One fact that punters habitually prefer to look away from - is what I call “long term losers”. These are horses that haven’t won a race for so long that as a punter they do not bear having your hard earned on. Week in and week out punters line up to back horses that are simply little more than bookies benefits.
Historically, down through the annals of time, once a horse hasn’t won a race for 12 months or more, it is highly unlikely to win a Saturday city race.
As the Melbourne Spring Carnival dawns, it’s a good rule of thumb to ignore backing horses that haven’t won a race for 12 months or more. Like any rule in punting, the odd one will defy the rule and win, but not enough will ever win to allow the punter to conclude that backing them is anything but “a quick way to the poor house” - in the same vein as backing horses resuming from a spell was outlined yesterday on Justracing.
So what I’ve done today to simplify the process for punters is I’ve been through every race at Caulfield tomorrow - and this is the list of “long term losers” that are appearing at the meeting. By putting a line straight through them, you’ll back more winners.
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RACE
|
HORSE
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LAST WIN/TIME AWAY FROM WINNERS LIST
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2
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Emblem of Liberty
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10/1/09 – 43 months
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2
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Biancon Rose
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13/8/11 – 12 months
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2
|
Gold Help Her
|
6/4/11 – 16 months
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3
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Anise
|
9/4/11 – 16 months
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|
3
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La Bella Roo
|
31/12/10 – 20 months
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3
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And Rock
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27/8/11 – 12 months
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3
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Lizawi
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7/7/11 – 13 months
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5
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Berringama
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24/3/11 – 17 months
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|
5
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Testarhythm
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2/7/11 – 13 months
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6
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Heart of Dreams
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26/2/11 – 18 months
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|
6
|
Voila Ici
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12/6/11 – 14 months
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|
6
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Wall Street
|
6/11/10 – 21 months
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|
6
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Maluckyday
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30/10/10 – 22 months
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|
6
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Midas Touch
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9/5/10 – 27 months
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|
7
|
Unusual Suspect
|
13/11/10 – 21 months
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|
7
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Avenius
|
11/9/10 -23 months
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|
7
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Cuban Sunday
|
26/3/11 – 17 months
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|
8
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Precedence
|
23/10/10 – 22 months
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|
8
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Dusty Star
|
12/2/11 – 18 months
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|
8
|
Spacecraft
|
24/9/10 – 23 months
|
|
8
|
Offenders
|
19/2/11 – 18 months
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|
8
|
Lakedro
|
28/4/10 – 20 months
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|
8
|
Can Do
|
12/6/11 – 14 months
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So there are 23 horses that we can put a line straight through at the Caulfield meeting tomorrow due to the fact they haven’t won a race anywhere for 52 weeks or longer. Given there are only 105 acceptors at the entire Caulfield meeting, I’ve now eliminated 21.90% of the horses drawn to compete by invoking this simple strategy. And it’s not as if the list contains all bolters either, as horses like Dusty Star around 3/1 or 7/2 in the fixed markets currently.
I noticed as I did this research that there are a stack more horses that haven’t won a race for about 49 or 50 weeks – really high profile horses - that are generally proven to be nothing more than bookies benefits. Horses like Rekindled Interest (last win 10/9/11), Sincero (last win 17/9/11) are just a couple of big names who would have both made my list if I did the same exercise in three weeks time.
So be both alert and alarmed around a Form Guide for horses that haven’t won a race for 52 weeks or more. You can mark my words “they rarely win another Saturday city race”.
