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BACK PIERRO AT YOUR OWN PERIL |
By Matt Nicholls29/08/2012 |
melbourneracing@gmail.com |
 No good thing ... Pierro proved earlier this year he was a champion two-year-old colt. But that doesn't mean he'll be any good as a three-year-old. In fact, I'd be laying him heavily this Saturday if he runs.
THERE’S a lot of interest surrounding the return of Pierro to the racetrack this week, but if you’re a punter, I’d suggest you refrain from backing the boom colt on Saturday.
While the Gai Waterhouse-trained star might just blow them away in The Run To The Rose (1200m) at Rosehill, history suggests Golden Slipper winners are no sure things in their first race as a three-year-old.
I’ve gone back through the records of the 10 Golden Slipper winners before Pierro and found that just two have won on resuming from a spell as thee-year-olds.
Sepoy did it last year, while star filly Miss Finland did it in 2006.
Before Pierro, the last time a horse won Sydney’s triple crown – the Slipper, Sires Produce and Champagne Stakes – was Dance Hero, who was also trained by Waterhouse.
Dance Hero was sent out a $1.50 favourite in his first start as a three-year-old and failed, running third in a five-horse field.
But just because Golden Slipper winners don’t have a great success rate when first-up as three-year-olds, doesn’t mean they can’t go on to achieve some good things at that age.
None have won a Cox Plate, a race Pierro is reportedly being set for, but many have won Group 1 races.
Let’s hope Pierro goes a little bit better than Polar Success and Calaway Gal, who never won after winning the Golden Slipper in 2003 and 2002 respectively.
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After defeating Mosheen by two lengths in last year’s Golden Slipper, Sepoy went straight to the paddock and returned in the Listed Vain Stakes at Caulfield (1100m).
The colt won the race with ease, smashing Golden Archer by 2½ lengths at the prohibitive odds of $1.26.
In his first campaign as a three-year-old, the Peter Snowden-trained juvenile went undefeated, winning five straight races, including the Group 1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley and the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington.
Sepoy has never been raced further than 1200m and all his wins were in the 1000-1200m bracket.
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The Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra-trained filly won a thrilling Slipper, beating Decision Time by half a length.
Crystal Lily went straight for a spell and returned in August in the Listed Quezette Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield.
Despite being sent out as the $1.70 favourite, the three-year-old filly couldn’t match the Peter Moody-trained Panipique, finishing second by three-quarters of a length.
Her next start was a fortnight later in the Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill.
As the $4.20 second favourite, she never fired a shot and finished four lengths off winner Toorak Toff in 11th place.
She was immediately sent for a spell.
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After beating Headway by about two lengths in the Golden Slipper, Phelan Ready backed up in the Sires Produce Stakes and finished seventh, thus ending his campaign.
The Bruce and Jason McLachlan-trained young gun returned as a three-year-old in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes at Rosehill and battled on to finish third as the $3.70 favourite.
The next start he ran 14th of 15 in the Golden Rose and had three starts in Melbourne for a spell.
The closest Phelan Ready got to a win down south was a second in the Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley, where he was beaten by Danleigh.
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Gai Waterhouse’s gun two-year-old won his fourth race from as many starts when he pipped Von Costa De Hero in the Golden Slipper.
Sebring then went on to make it five in a row in the Sires Produce Stakes, but his unbeaten run as a two-year-old ended when he was beaten by a nose by Samantha Miss in his first and only attempt at 1600m in the Champagne Stakes.
The colt didn’t return in the spring and had just one trial in January, 2009 before the owners sent him to the breeding barn.
Sebring stands for about $50,000 at Widden Stud and was this week tipped to be the leading first season sire as his progeny hit the track for the first time.
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The John Hawkes-trained filly caused an upset when she won the Golden Slipper at $14, but she managed to go on with the job later in life, albeit not in her next preparation.
After immediately spelling post the Slipper win, Forensics was brought back in the spring as a three-year-old but failed to reach lofty heights.
She ran sixth of eight in the Quezette Stakes at Caulfield after drifting heavily in the market, and followed that up with a sixth, ninth and 12th in Group 2 and 3 races in Melbourne.
Forensics was then spelled, but came back much stronger as a three-year-old, capped off by wins in the Golden Rose and the Queen Of The Turf at Rosehill and Canterbury.
In the spring of 2008, as a four-year-old, Forensics won the Group 1 Myer Classic as the well-backed favourite.
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One of my favourite horses, Miss Finland was a special filly.
She won the Golden Slipper by a whopping 4½ lengths and ran second in the Champagne Stakes a few weeks later before being sent for a spell.
In her first race as a three-year-old, she won the Group 3 McNeil Stakes at Caulfield and went on to have five more runs that campaign.
Miss Finland won the 1000 Guineas at Caulfield and the Victorian Oaks that preparation, but arguably one of her finest performances was in the Cox Plate, where she ran a credible sixth behind winner Fields Of Omagh.
Sixth might not sound like much, but when you consider only one three-year-old filly has won the Cox Plate before – Surround in 1976 – it was a bloody good effort.
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The Paul Perry-trained colt was given some chance to win the Slipper at $10, but he won quite comfortably in the end, defeating Fashions Afield.
He failed to back that up in the Sires Produce, running seventh as the well-supported favourite, and was sent for a spell.
After a couple of trials, Stratum returned as a three-year-old in the San Domenico (1000m), where he finished fourth as a $12 elect.
Stratum backed that up with three second placings – two in Sydney and one in Melbourne – before running fifth in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m).
He had two more runs in Group races at Flemington, but failed to win, leaving him winless in his first prep as a three-year-old.
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A boom two-year-old who won Sydney’s triple crown – the Slipper, Sires Produce and Champagne Stakes – Dance Hero lost his first race as a three-year-old.
Trained by Gai Waterhouse, Dance Hero was sent out as the $1.50 favourite in the San Domenico at Randwick and beat just two runners home in the five-horse field.
The next start he drifted from $1.40 to $1.75 in the Group 2 Up and Coming Stakes at Warwick Farm and ran last to Fastnet Rock in the four-horse field.
He again spelled and ran in the autumn, winning two of his three races before freshening up for the Stradbroke Handicap in Brisbane, where he ran eighth of 20 behind winner St Basil.
Although he never managed to replicate his two-year-old form, Dance Hero eventually won another Group 1 race – the Salinger Stakes on Derby Day in November, 2006 as a five-year-old.
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After winning the Golden Slipper on a good track, Polar Success failed in the Sires Produce on a slow surface, finishing second last.
The filly was then sent for a spell and resumed in the Group 2 Silver Shadow Stakes (1200m) – a race for three-year-old fillies at Randwick.
Trained by Graeme Rogerson, Polar Success finished fourth.
That was as close as she got to winning in her first campaign as a three-year-old.
In her subsequent starts, the filly finished fifth and fourth in a Group 3 and Listed race before returning to the paddock.
Despite another seven starts, she never won again. In fact, she never got close.
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Bruce Brown caused an upset when he trained Calaway Gal to a win in the Golden Slipper, with most having her as an outsider at $14 or worse.
That win proved to be a fluke as she never found that kind of form again.
She was sent out as the second favourite in the Sires Produce, but ran sixth before spelling.
Resuming as a three-year-old in the San Domenico, Calaway Gal ran seventh of eight, before finishing third in the Silver Shadow Stakes.
She followed that with midfield runs in Sydney, before going back to the paddock.
Even back in native Queensland, Calaway Gal couldn’t find her form. She didn’t win another race.
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