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23/05/2013
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FLEMINGTON RACE 6 PREVIEW

By Matt Nicholls
10/08/2012
melbourneracing@gmail.com
Danny Nikolic might have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons this week, but I think he can produce a good result aboard the Terry and Karina O'Sullivan-trained Balzeus tomorrow.

MELBOURNE has copped a bit of rain this week and, combined with the cold weather, has caused the Flemington track to be fairly soft for tomorrow’s meeting.

At the time of writing, the track was rated heavy 8 and it should stay about that mark through the eight-race program.

Most races tomorrow are worth $80,000, although one is worth $100,000 and the Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap, the race I’m previewing, is worth $150,000.

As we said last week, spring is in the air and we are starting to see some of the better horses hit the track.

Some of the horses racing tomorrow will likely feature in Group 1 races over longer distances in the spring, so it’s worth keeping an eye on their progress.

One horse worth watching is three-year-old colt Mulaazem in the first.

Trained by Peter Moody, the half-brother to Sepoy won by an impressive 10 lengths last start on a heavy 10 at Sandown and meets Saturday company for the first time.

Without doing the form on the race, the $2 you can get about him looks to be pretty generous.

Having said that, though, he wasn’t highly regarded by the stable last start (Vlad Duric rode him while Luke Nolen rode a stablemate), meaning that performance might have been a shock to many.

The race I’m previewing tomorrow is the Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap, which is raced down the straight over 1200m.

Racing Victoria freelancer Brad Bishop wrote a good story on Aurie's Star, a champion of the 1930s and '40s, for the RV website. You can find it by clicking HERE

GROUP 3 AURIE'S STAR HANDICAP PREVIEW

To be raced down the 1200m straight at Flemington. Odds courtesy Luxbet.

1. MIDAS TOUCH

Has ability, but not over this distance.

$51

2. GREEN BIRDIE

Has been “unlucky” in his last two runs, according to some. The Flemington straight will suit, I reckon, so he has a place chance.

$8

3. SEVILLE

Former overseas stayer now in Lloyd Williams’ care. Had two runs in the autumn for not much result. Like Midas Touch, has ability, but not over this distance.

$61

4. GOLDEN ARCHER

Three starts down the Flemington straight for three wins suggest he’s going to be bloody hard to beat again. Only thing against him is that those three wins were over 1000 and 1100m.

$2.25

5. SOUND JOURNEY

Getting on in years and this will be too quick for him.

$61

6. ZAMORAR

I’d argue he was disappointing last start, even though he was second. Had every chance to win and was beaten. Will likely run another good race, but he’d want to be $6 or $7 before getting any of my hard earned.

$4

7. OFFENDERS

Was third in this race last year (replay is below). That was first-up and today he’s second-up. I’d give him a place chance at big odds.

$31

8. ULUNDI

Is a handy horse in the Pat Carey stable, but I’d be saving my punting money for another day if I were connections.

$31

9. SHANGHAI WARRIOR

Won quite well the other day and I thought he couldn’t. I’ve learnt my lesson and give him an each-way chance.

$7

10. BALZEUS

His first-up run behind Shanghai Warrior was eye-catching and I think he’ll be better for the run. Has won on a heavy track before, but that was in a much lower grade. Still, I give him a good each-way chance.

$17

11. SIERRA NEVADA

An interesting runner. Had really good form in New Zealand around the likes of Jimmy Choux before hitting our shores for one run in September last year, where he was third in an average race. Is resuming from a massive spell tomorrow, so I’ll be just watching. It will be with interest, though, as he’s bred to stay.

$71

12. TWILIGHTING

The only mare in the race and I think she’ll be hard pressed to keep up with the boys.

$17

13. SYSMO

Former French galloper that did OK in Adelaide under new trainer Tony McEvoy but only had two starts. Interesting that he has brought him here first-up instead of an easier starting point at Morphettville. Could run into the top four.

$26


It’s an interesting race that hinges on the performance of favourite Golden Archer. Even though he’s been impeccable down the straight at Flemington, he hasn’t done the “straight six” yet and that’s a challenge. I think he’ll run top three, so I’m going to “rove” him in a trifecta with Zamorar, Offenders, Shanghai Warrior and Balzeus. $20 will get you 55.5%. I’m also going to have an each-way bet on Balzeus.


TEMPLE OF BOOM WINNING THE AURIE'S STAR LAST YEAR

 


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