RACING returns to Moonee Valley for the first time since March 31 and the StrathAyr surface has been redone during that time.
There’s no doubt the track will look pristine tomorrow – even though it was rated slow 6 at the time of writing – but the question punters want answered is: how will it race?
Historically, Moonee Valley has favoured horses on the pace and close to the fence.
It’s the tightest metropolitan track in Melbourne and is probably now the most used, considering it races just about every Friday night in the summer.
But good horses can still win from back in the field at Moonee Valley, it’s just they have to be right on their game to do so.
I haven’t lived long enough, or taken enough notice in the past, to be able to give a firm opinion on how I think the track will play tomorrow, but my gut feeling is being on the fence and up the front will be a big advantage.
Generally, the turf closest to the rail will be the big benefactor of a track resurface because it’s the ground that’s raced on the most.
Whether that’s the case tomorrow, only time will tell.
But I suggest punters, if desperate to have a bet at the Valley tomorrow, should probably halve or quarter their usual stake.
In doing my usual Saturday preview, I have looked exclusively for a race where I think there is a standout frontrunner who should find the rails comfortably from the barriers.
That turned out to be race two, the Make-A-Wish Sprint over 1200m. It’s a 0-89 race worth $80,000. Odds courtesy Luxbet.
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1. GOD’S WINDOW
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Has drawn barrier four and normally shows good early pace. Will be leading or thereabouts and will give punters a good sight for their money. If the race is run at a lightning speed he might struggle over the last 100m as I don’t think he’s a genuine 1200m horse.
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$13
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2. KING HOAKS
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Drawn wide, out of form, pass.
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$31
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3. MIDNIGHT GLORY
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Had a 27-week spell, ran last, and has been out of action for 24 weeks up until tomorrow. No thanks.
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$71
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4. HUXSSEN
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Has drawn well in barrier two but gets back in races and runs on. That formula isn’t one I like at the Valley.
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$17
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5. DASH FOR VIZ
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Record over 1200m is 8:1-5-0, which means he usually finds one better. It’s hard to back those horses.
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$12
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6. REBEL TRUCE
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Is not a bad little sprinter, but he’s drawn 10 and doesn’t race on the speed, as a rule.
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$6.50
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7. SCAREDYMAC
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Hasn’t been sighted for a couple of months, which is in between a freshen and a spell. Has won four times over 1200m and did show early speed last time (although that was over 1600m). I’ll be passing but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a good run.
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$21
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8. VALEDICTORIAN
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A nice sprinter who has run too many seconds for my liking. Is also trained by David Hayes, who I have a lot of respect for, but his horses are going terribly at the moment.
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$12
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9. LORD OF BRAZIL
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This is certainly a bit tougher than what he’s used to, but barrier one is always a plus and he has been able to race on the pace when asked to. Career record of 14:5-6-0 suggests he has ability and that makes him a good each-way prospect tomorrow.
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$5.50
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10. BELLISSIMO
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Does race on the pace and hasn’t drawn too wide. Hasn’t won first-up so that’s why I think he’s a place chance only.
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$7
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11. RORKE'S DRIFT
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Drawn the car park, which was enough to put me off.
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$41
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12. TOKUGAWA
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Showed some ability as a three-year-old but he’s only had five career starts and he’s just turned five. They haven’t gelded him yet, so I’d be watching the markets. Definite place chance.
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$9
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13. BOMBALATOMBA
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Was “unlucky” last start when held up briefly, but I don’t think he would have won. Likes to get back in races and that’s why I can’t be tipping him. On ability, he’s just as good as any of these, if not better, but I’m tipping on pace patterns tomorrow.
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$4.40
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Even though he’s drifted from $10 to $13 since the markets opened, I’m still going to have an each-way bet on God’s Window. It will be half my normal stake, though. I just think he finds the front or sits just off the leader and runs top-three. The soft ground won’t hurt him, nor will a dead track if it dries out. The other horse I like at OK odds is Lord Of Brazil, who is drawn to race well from barrier one.
